Antifragile Book Review – Nassim Taleb

antifragile nassim taleb

Antifragile Book Review – Nassim Taleb

The fallacy of “average” (mistake of average / average figures).

Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2016 is about 2,200 USD (50 million / year). The average house / apartment price is from 700 million – 1.5 billion. High-end apartments are about 3 billion or more. If the average GDP is calculated, Vietnamese people have to work 30 years to buy a mid-range apartment and 68 years of work to buy a high-class apartment. Many people are surprised why the fact that the high-end apartment project still sprung up like mushrooms after the rain, the project that opened and sold out also ran out of stock, so many stars had so much money, it must be speculation / bubbles.

In fact, the average GDP data does not indicate the distribution and the difference in income. The average of the whole society is 2,200 USD, but many people earn hundreds of times that average. My personal guess: the Vietnamese population is 100 million, 70% (70 million) are in the working / working age. Of those 70 million, about 0.5% (350 thousand people) can earn up to 10 billion per year, 5% (3.5 million people) with an income of about 1 billion / year, nearly 15% (11 million). with an income of up to 500 million / year and the remaining 80% (56 million) with income of less than 50 million / year.

Thus, 11 million people can afford an average apartment (less than 1.5 billion) after 4 years of work. Nearly 4 million people are able to buy luxury apartments (over 3 billion) after 4-5 years. The number of high-class apartments in the country is about 12,000 units per year on average, so after only 7 years (from 2009 until now), there are only about 85,000 units, still very few compared to the potential. Not surprisingly, the demand for high-end apartments is still high.

Brand name firms, from Herme leather bags of 2 billion VND / unit, to Rolex watches, LV belts … can survive because of the unequal distribution of properties. Based on the average income of 2,200 USD / year, no firm exists (even in the world, not Vietnam).



Similarly, Vung Tau is the locality with the highest average income of goods in the country, but the business of goods and high-quality investment services is difficult to make money, almost restaurants and coffee shops. high-end, Japanese / American furniture stores are 1 year long and short, only 2-3 months are closed. The reason rich people contribute to high average GDP accounts for a small amount. Although they have a lot of money, they only drink 1 cup of coffee / day, eat up to 3 meals … the demand is only that, the high-end business is difficult to live.

On average, women are smart and capable of being inferior to men. But in men, the distribution of talent is uneven: on the average, the whole species is equal to women, but in some men it is excellent, but others are also ridiculous. That explains why the national leaders, companies, characters are better in men than in women in science and art, but go to jail for drug addiction, addiction, forgiveness, lazy … men also superior to women many times.

Now Nassim Nicholas Taleb has only written 3 books (Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan and Antifragile), but every book is very impressive, profound and countless new ideas. “The fallacy of average” is just a bullet point in a page of Antifragile (450 pages).

All three of Taleb’s books are difficult to read, but deserve to ponder, struggle and read over and over again.


(By Meraki)

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis.

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis.

“It’s hard to know how people select a course in life. The big choices we make are practically random. The small choices probably tell us more about who we are. Which field we go into may depend on which high school teacher we happen to meet. Who we marry may depend on who happens to be around at the right time of life. On the other hand, the small decisions are very systematic.”
That I became a bookseller is probably not revealing. But what kind of bookseller I am may reflect deep traits.

– From “The Undoing Project”, by Michael Lewis.

(from Meraki)





Black Edge Book Review – Steven A. Cohen.

Black Edge Book Review – Steven A. Cohen.

“Behind every great fortune there is a crime.” – Honoré de Balzac

This is a book about one of the most well-known investment funds in the United States (SAC Captial) and the founder and operator of the Captial SAC: billionaire “white hand made” Steven A. Cohen.

Different from Warren Buffett’s investment school, people buy and hold stock of companies for decades. Cohen is a “surfing” trader, earning money by trading stocks during the day, even hours / minutes.

Stock prices often fluctuate according to revenue and profit information … information about new projects / contracts, or products / inventions that companies prepare. SAC Capital has a dense network of “spies” / “spies” throughout the country to collect these insider information before they are published; and carry out the purchase and sale of related stocks based on the information obtained.


Buying and selling stocks and making profits based on this information is illegal and subject to very heavy imprisonment under US securities law. But SAC Capital is not a normal investment fund, a list of employees and “paid” employees of SAC Capital in addition to “monsters” in the financial industry also includes reputable lawyers, former leaders and employees. key members of every US legal agency (FBI, Ministry of Justice and Securities Commission – SEC).

SAC Capital is considered to be the most successful investment fund in the United States (no less than Berkshire Hathaway of Buffet), the 18-year existence of SAC Capital and Steven Cohen is huge. The wealth of Vietnam’s richest people is estimated at US $ 1 billion, which is only half the amount that Steven Cohen earned in a year.

Based on published documents from prosecutors and the FBI, the book describes in detail the biographies of the main characters, the formation process, the operational model, how to “make prices” and make money of SAC. Capital; as well as a 10-year pursuit of US public agencies (FBI, prosecutor, SEC) to bring down and prosecute Steven Cohen.

True stories but thrilling and more attractive than any detective novel.

The only difference is that the detective theory often ends with “godfathers” being put on the horseshoe. In real life Cohen with innate sharpness and sensitivity, and the system of the most reputable lawyers took advantage of the provisions of US law to defeat the FBI and the justice department. Some “managers” under Cohen were imprisoned, SAC Capital was closed, Cohen was banned from managing public money for two years (still entitled to invest his own money).

But the biggest fish of Steven Cohen reached the net, in 2016 Cohen earned $ 2.5 billion (from investing his money). He plans to reopen a new investment fund in 2018 (after the two-year ban expires), it is expected that people will queue up to ask Steven Cohen to invest.

(From Meraki)


Apply Sun Tzu in Trading Stock – What Should Investor Prepare Before Getting Into The Battle.

Apply Sun Tzu in Trading Stock – What Should Investor Prepare Before Getting Into The Battle.

The stock market is a place of high-level war of knowledge, it is a fierce battle in which blood and tears will be long and long days, sometimes insiders have the ability to forget the close joy in life.


A legendary Jesse Livermore number one, speculative genius, and the old wolf of Wall Street’s old wolf also ended his fate and name in a sad note that was no more sad. So, before deciding to participate in the stock market, ask yourself honestly and seriously whether you should invest in securities in large amounts or not, and should learn investment evidence. How to contract? There are many things to say, which can be skimmed quickly through a few basic points. Let’s apply Sun Tzu in trading, so I know I know people.

The stock market has been fighting each other since the beginning

1. First, assess yourself at what level to play the stock.
There are 2 most important components in the stock game. Yes, it is only two factions, me and the enemy.
Investment funds, self-employed companies, they are often the final winners.
Small investor, which divided into many components:
i) People who do not know anything about securities, do not know basic analysis, technical analysis. Definitely lose. ii) People with little knowledge of securities, a little fundamental analysis, a little technical analysis. Should participate in investment funds or securities companies to cultivate more experience. Ability to win about 30%. iii) Knowledgeable people in the macroeconomic: choose goods periodically, when prices fall long and turn up and the industry grows again because of the cycle such as: real estate, oil, steel, goods , transport, port yard. They have the ability to win 50%.


iv) A sharp-minded, strong, coherent, capable person can learn technical analysis and macroeconomic theories towards professionalism, and begin to learn and practice with The amount of capital is very small, the training for the account is steadily increasing, they will be professional investors. 2. Required factors for securities investment i) Observation ii) Intelligence iii) Endurance Having the above things will give you an image like this:

 

Successful man in trading look like that in Hollywood

But as well as the inherent deception of stock, the image is really different from what we hear or are told. The terminology of the industry is pig bird and bum.

Typical beauty of a successful person in the stock market

3. Technical knowledge, tools and indicators need to be firmly grasped when participating in the stock market

  • Dow Theory
  • Wave Elliott
  • Trend line
  • Resistance, Support
  • Japanese candles
  • Fibonacci, Gann
  • MA average line
  • MACD indicator
  • Cash flow index MFI
  • RSI indicator

4. Which securities investors should use the system and trading software to analyze?
It is best to use at least 2 trading systems to avoid data errors. Each software has its own strengths. Individual investors can use Investing.com or a non-copyrighted version of Amibroker.

But as a real stock investor, it is best to buy the TradingView system, the price is not worth a lot but it is worth a lot of money, a lot of support tools, can be customized according to your needs Best price to every minute, support Vietnamese.


TradingView price list can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/ 

Keep buying such knowledge and tools first, the road is still long and difficult.