Sách Antifragile – Nassim Taleb

antifragile nassim taleb

Sách Antifragile – Nassim Taleb

The fallacy of “average” (sai lầm của những số liệu trung bình/bình quân).

GDP bình quân đầu người của VN năm 2016 là khoảng 2.200 USD (độ 50 triệu/năm). Giá nhà đất/căn hộ tầm trung là từ 700triệu – 1.5 tỷ. Căn hộ cao cấp khoảng 3 tỷ trở lên. Nếu tính theo GDP bình quân thì người Việt phải mất 30 năm làm việc mới mua đc một căn hộ tầm trung và 68 năm làm việc thì mới mua được một căn hộ cao cấp. Nhiều người ngạc nhiên sao thực tế dự án căn hộ cao cấp vẫn mọc lên như nấm sau mưa, dự án nào mở bán cũng hết hàng, thiên hạ sao nhiều tiền thế, chắc chắn phải là đầu cơ/bong bóng.


Thực ra số liệu GDP bình quân ko nói lên sự phân bổ và khác biệt trong thu nhập. Bình quân cả xã hội 2.200 USD, nhưng nhiều người kiếm gấp trăm lần số bình quân đó. Ước đoán mò của cá nhân tôi: dân số Vn 100 triệu, 70% (70 triệu) đang trong độ tuổi lao động/đi làm. Trong số 70 triệu đó thì khoảng 0.5% (350 nghìn người) có thể có thu nhập lên tới 10 tỷ mỗi năm, 5% (3.5 triệu người) có thu nhập khoảng 1 tỷ/năm, gần 15% nữa (11 triệu) có thu nhập tới 500 triệu/năm và 80% còn lại (56 triệu) có thu nhập dưới 50 triệu/năm.

Như vậy thì có 11 triệu người có khả năng mua được căn hộ trung bình (dưới 1.5 tỷ) sau độ 4 năm làm việc. Gần 4 triệu người có khả năng mua căn hộ cao cấp (trên 3 tỷ) sau 4-5 năm. Lượng căn hộ cao cấp cả nước mỗi năm tung ra thị trường trung bình khoảng 12.000 căn, như vậy sau 7 năm (từ 2009 tới nay) mới có khoảng 85.000 căn, còn rất ít so với tiềm năng. Không ngạc nhiên khi thời gian tới nhu cầu đối với căn hộ cao cấp vẫn còn nhiều.

Các hãng kinh doanh hàng hiệu, từ cái túi da Herme 2 tỷ/chiếc, cho đến đồng hồ Rolex, thắt lưng LV…sống được là nhờ đặc tính phân bổ tài sản không đều đó. Chứ cứ dựa vào mức thu nhập bình quân 2.200 USD/năm thì chả hãng nào tồn tại được (cả trên thế giới chứ đừng nói Vietnam).

Tương tự vậy, Vũng tàu là địa phương có thu nhập bình quân vào hàng cao nhất cả nước, nhưng kinh doanh hàng hoá, dịch vụ cao cấp/đầu tư bài bản rất khó kiếm tiền, hầu như các nhà hàng, quán cà phê high-end, tiệm bán đồ Nhật/đồ Mỹ lâu là 1 năm, ngắn thì chỉ 2-3 tháng là đóng cửa. Lý do những người giàu góp phần làm cho GDP bình quân cao chiếm số lượng ít. Dù có nhiều tiền họ cũng chỉ uống 1 ly cà phê/ngày, ăn tối đa 3 bữa…nhu cầu chỉ có vậy thì kinh doanh cao cấp khó sống.


Về mặt trung bình, phụ nữ thông minh và có khả năng không thua kém đàn ông. Nhưng ở đàn ông, phân bố về tài năng là không đồng đều: về mặt trung bình cả loài thì ngang với phụ nữ, nhưng ở đàn ông một số thì rất xuất sắc, nhưng số khác thì cũng rất vớ vẩn. Điều đó lý giải tại sao lãnh đạo quốc gia, cty, nhân vật xuất chúng trong khoa học, nghệ thuật đàn ông hơn hẳn phụ nữ, nhưng vào tù ra tội, nghiện hút, bê tha, lười biếng…đàn ông cũng vượt trội hơn phụ nữ nhiều lần.

Tới giờ Nassim Nicholas Taleb mới chỉ viết có 3 cuốn (Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan và Antifragile), nhưng cuốn nào cũng rất ấn tượng, sâu sắc và vô vàn những ý tưởng mới lạ. “The fallacy of average” chỉ là một ý gạch đầu dòng trong một trang của cuốn Antifragile (450 trang).

Ba cuốn của Taleb đều khó đọc, nhưng xứng đáng để chúng ta nghiền ngẫm, vật vã và đọc đi đọc lại nhiều lần.

(Sưu tầm từ Meraki)


How To Lie With Statistics – Darrell Huff

How to lie with statistics darrell huff

How To Lie With Statistics – Darrell Huff

Regression to the mean. (Average Regression)

Reporter Tim Hardford recently reported that the American Communications Association has just awarded the Communicator of the Year 2017 to Oscar Munoz (CEO of United Airlines). The name of the uncle is engraved in the prize, and it is not clear that the “miss” happened by Munoz in handling Mr. David Dao was pulled from the plane.

The American Architects Association awards excellent awards to Kemper Arena, the award ceremony takes place at an Arena designed by the Arena; After a few hours, the roof of this program suddenly collapsed.

Life is literally black.



There was a friend who worked as a boss, just called up and praised one of the staff the previous day, the number one; He has not missed the day after he had terrible mistakes. Other children have been criticized, then later they will see it perform.

Tim Hardford argues that people often have little to say about a statistics rule that all things tend to return to moderate (regression to the mean).

For example, the average height of Vietnamese people is 1.6m; Which one is 1.9m tall is the “border” / exception. Regression to the mean means that your child will most likely return to 1.6m. Like my father-in-law 1.8m; The instrument has two children, the height is all “mean”.

“Regression to the mean” is not difficult to understand, but few people know how to apply it in practice.

In business, Vingroup in the years 2009-2014, continuous 5-7 years of continuous revenue increased by 200-300%, the previous year doubled the next year; The stock price went up, did you ask if you should buy Vin’s stock? Vin is a good group without discussion, but at the price of 100-150K (at the time of 2012), it is expected that the market will grow 200-300% every year for 5-7 years. 20-30 years into the top of the world, not only Vietnam. Tree cannot grow to the sky, any company has grown significantly over the past 5-7 years, investing on the assumption that it will continue to grow like that for another 5-7 years is a risky assumption.

I just went out of business, there was a friend who told me that when I was in the market, I was so cool, so I could follow. I told you, wait for a while, maybe you’re going back to “mean”.

(From Meraki)


Ngày Mai Của Những Ngày Mai – Nguyễn Ngọc Tư

Ngay mai cua nhung ngay mai nguyen ngoc tu

Ngày Mai Của Những Ngày Mai – Nguyễn Ngọc Tư

Làm sông ( -Nguyễn Ngọc Tư)

Uỷ ban xã cử chị chạy xuồng máy đưa anh xuống Vàm Cây Tra, bọn họ đùa, “Viết về sông Lớn anh hùng mà có nữ pháo binh anh hùng đi cùng là nhất anh rồi”. Chị đang lúi húi mở dây buộc xuồng, cười xòa, “anh hùng gì, mấy ông này cứ đem chuyện cũ nhắc hoài, mắc chán.”


Anh thấy kỳ lạ, có vẻ chị không vui với những lời như vậy, chị bối rối, chị khoả lấp, chị loay hoay che giấu nụ cười phảng phất buồn. Hay đấy chỉ là cảm giác của riêng anh. Suốt buổi sáng, người phụ nữ nhỏ nhắn này làm anh bất ngờ, thán phục, nể sợ khi biết chị đã từng bắn cháy bốn tàu giặc trên sông Lớn. Mắt anh níu lấy chi tiết đôi bàn tay gân guốc, một bên vai hơi lệch như vẫn còn đang chịu sức nặng của những khẩu B40, môi mím lại, cương nghị, tai không còn thính nhạy, thỉnh thoảng chị lại ngơ ngác, “Hả? Chị điếc lắm, cậu phải nói lớn chị mới nghe được”. Cả giọng nói rổn rảng, xởi lởi, cả cái nhìn đen nhức xoáy thẳng vào người đối diện làm chị toát lên vẻ cứng cỏi, kiên cường.

Nên anh không thấy lạ khi biết chị vẫn sống một mình, suốt thời con gái lặn lội vì chiến tranh, chắc chị chẳng rảnh rang để hẹn hò, mà, chị mạnh mẽ vậy thì cần gì hẹn hò. Bây giờ, cùng đi hết một quãng đường sông, anh cũng không ngạc nhiên khi chị chạy xuồng máy ôm cua ngọt xớt qua những khúc quanh. Tia nước từ chân vịt bắn lên thành những chùm pháo hoa trắng xóa. Sông Lớn mênh mang trong tầm mắt, mất một lúc, đến gần vàm, anh mừng húm khi thấy xác tàu Mỹ nằm phập phều giữa dòng sông. Anh hớn hở ra hiệu chị dừng lại, anh muốn chụp bức ảnh người nữ pháo binh bên khối sắt thép lạnh lùng kia, chị lại cười, hỏi, “Cậu tính chụp hình bông súng hả? Ừ, khúc sông này mà lên báo chắc đẹp dữ lắm”.


Biết chị lảng tai từ hồi chiến tranh, vì sức ép của đạn pháo, mà chị hay xua tay bảo “Tật nhỏ. Bệnh nghề nghiệp”, anh định cười. Bỗng dưng anh có cảm giác, hay là chính mình mới là kẻ không nghe được lời chị. Rằng con sông này đang vào mùa đẹp nhất.

Anh đứng dậy, trùng trình, chênh vênh nơi mũi xuồng, sững sờ nhận ra vẻ đẹp của dòng sông. Bình dị. An nhiên. Tự tại. Hai bên bờ, dừa nước chảy tràn. Cái dãy màu xanh miết, day diết lên chân trời thi thoảng bị ngắt quãng bởi một cái bến sông, vài cây tra treo những chùm chuông vàng rực; bởi những lùm cây dại, bìm bìm đem hoa tím phủ trùm lên; bởi những cái vó nhỏ có đám trẻ tòn ten đánh đu cất lên mẻ lưới đẫm nước… Và gần bờ lá, những bông súng nở bừng vọt lên khỏi mặt nước, rập rờn. Cái dòng chảy trong lẻo rất khẽ khàng, dịu dàng chở sắc tím của bông đi mãi miết. Anh nhìn lại dòng sông qua ống kính máy ảnh và thấy cả hai – anh và cái máy – đều bất lực, không thể chuyển tải, diễn tả, không thu gọn được cái đẹp mênh mang, sâu thẳm này trong một vài bức hình. Anh tự cười mình, sao anh lại phải đợi chị nói, mới nhận ra sông đẹp?

Anh bỗng nghe một câu thơ cũ, rành rọt, như thể ở đằng lái, chính chị đang tát nước xuồng và đọc nó chứ không phải vọng lại từ trí nhớ của mình, “Sáng nay Bạch Đằng tạm quên mình làm sử để làm sông”. Con sông Lớn bây giờ cũng không thèm làm sử, hay nó đã thôi làm sử, từ khi hết chiến tranh, nhưng mãi đến giờ con người cũng không cho nó làm sông. Anh cũng vậy, cũng bị choán chật, cũng bị chắn mất tầm nhìn vì những cái xác tàu. Nó lù lù đóng cọc ngay ở giữa lòng anh, làm ứa ra những ý nghĩ, sông là những trận đánh, những chiến công. Chiều nay, bên chiếc tàu sắt nằm vùi giữa dòng, anh chợt nhận ra cái cách nước rẽ mình khi đi qua khối thép vô tri này cũng giống như rẽ mình đi qua đám chà, cái đăng, cái đó, chẳng khác gì hết, bởi sông chỉ là sông.


Anh ngồi quay lại, và nhìn chị đến ngẩn ngơ, khi phát hiện ra, chị cũng đẹp, cũng dịu dàng, cũng rất phụ nữ. Đôi mày cong, ánh nhìn trong, đuôi mắt hẳn rất sắc, mái tóc dài bới gọn sau ót chắc đã từng đen buốt đến tận lưng. Chị nhỏ nhắn, mỏng manh đến mức anh nghĩ chỉ cần dang tay ra, sẽ gói gọn chị vào lòng.

Anh thảng thốt khi phát hiện ra vẻ đẹp của chị như lúc nhận ra vẻ đẹp của sông. Và bỗng dưng anh thấy day dứt cồn cào. Càng nhìn chị anh càng nhói, đuôi mắt kia đã hằn vết chân chim, chưa từng được hôn, mái tóc kia giờ chớm bạc, chưa một lần nào, chưa người đàn ông nào vuốt nó, âu yếm chải nó trong những chiều phai. Và những lúc mỏi mê, cũng không có bờ vai rộng nào cho chị tựa vào. Chị thui thủi đi qua tuổi xuân xanh của mình chỉ vì còn lắm người như anh, chỉ nhìn chị như một anh hùng mà quên chị là phụ nữ.

Quên có những con sông chỉ muốn làm sông, bình thường, suốt đời trôi lặng lẽ…

(Sưu tầm Meraki)


18 Minutes – Peter Bregman

18 minutes peter bregman

18 Minutes – Peter Bregman

According to the World Database of Happiness (yes, there is one), Iceland is the happiest place on earth. That’s right, Iceland. Yes, I know it’s cold and dark six months out of the year there. I’m just giving you the data.

The secret to their happiness? Eric Weiner, Author of The Geography of Bliss, traveled to Iceland to find out. After interviewing a number of Icelanders, Weiner discovered that their culture doesn’t stigmatize failure. Icelanders aren’t afraid to fail — or to be imperfect — and so they’re more willing to pursue what they enjoy. That’s one reason Iceland has more artists per capita than any other nation. “There’s no one on the island telling them they’re not good enough, so they just go ahead and sing and paint and write,” Weiner writes.



Which makes them incredibly productive. They don’t just sit around thinking they’d like to do something. They do it. According to the psychologist Mihaly Czikszentmihalyi, who wrote the book Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience, “It is not the skills we actually have that determine how we feel but the ones we think we have.”

So if you think you’re good at something, whether or not you are, you’ll do it. The converse is also true: if you think you aren’t good enough at something, you won’t do it.

A friend of mine, Jeff, has wanted for some time to start a business teaching guitar. But he hasn’t yet. Why? When you sift through his various explanations and excuses it comes down to one simple problem.

He’s a perfectionist.

Which means he’ll never think he’s good enough at guitar to teach it. And he’ll never feel like he knows enough about running a business to start one.

Perfectionists have a hard time starting things and an even harder time finishing them. At the beginning, it’s they who aren’t ready. At the end, it’s their product that’s not. So either they don’t start the screenplay or it sits in their drawer for ten years because they don’t want to show it to anyone.

But the world doesn’t reward perfection. It rewards productivity.

And productivity can only be achieved through imperfection. Make a decision. Follow through. Learn from the outcome. Repeat over and over and over again. It’s the scientific method of trial and error. Only by wading through the imperfect can we begin to achieve glimpses of the perfect.

– Peter Bregman (18 minutes).

Still interested? Read this book.

(By Meraki)



The Halo Effect Book Review – Phil Rosenzweig

The Halo Effec - Phil Rosenzweig

“The Halo Effect Book Review – Phil Rosenzweig

Read the Profile of the first female billionaire Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao (the owner of Vietjet Air) in the newspapers all see the details: “One day of the female billionaire starts at 5 am and ends at 2 pm. both of you go on business with … ”

Ms Nga (owner of SeaBank) is a very detailed and dedicated person who works with the staff and works with “extremely high” intensity.


The pressure of a big CEO’s job, which only sleeps for 3 hours / day, only supersedes. Writing so as to encourage young people to be enthusiastic & determined to fight in the work is true, but through that, to explain the success of Thao / Nga, I think there is little basis.

I personally know many of you are very successful, taking a nap until 3pm.

The desire to succeed & know the way to that is a legitimate wish. Of course, to know about the success of the starting point must study the successful people. So the book of enrichment is higher than the mountain, confused about which books to name …

It’s fair to say that there are really good books, like “7 Habits of Highly Effective People” by Stephen R. Covey; was voted by Forbes magazine as one of the best self-help books of all time.

Surprisingly, after nearly 30 years since publication with many millions of elite readers around the world, it seems that people do not become “successful” or “effective” than before.

The main problem with self-help books is to confuse causes and results. Studying and observing successful people, we see that they have many manifestations and characteristics: hard-working people, big-thinkers / think-ups, successful people who use things, successful people read books, people success or play with other successful people ….

But to draw conclusions and formulas to guide “juniors” not yet successful, the question needs to be asked: what creates what?

By sleeping only 3 hours / day that Ms. Thao created Vietjet, or because the work of a CEO made her only 3 hours / day to sleep?

“Think big” is it successful or successful, then is it possible to think big / think far away?

His success thanks to “relationship” with many successful people; Or is it successful, so is it possible to play with “big dogs”?

There are many scientific studies showing that college students make more money than those who only finish level 2 / level 3. Poor people also have to run for Teo to go to university. It is too obvious, everyone can see that the majority of universities are richer than universities … But the nature may be because people who enter university are more intelligent, so later they will earn more money. , not by university. You don’t go to college, but because there’s a smarter / faster nature than those who still make money or succeed.

Recently, a sister confided on social media: “Everyone tells girls to be confident and beautiful. But people must be beautiful to be confident! ”.

In the sky, I realized how much time it would take to catch up early as this sister

Phil Rosenzweig wrote a great book: “The Halo Effect”

Phil started with the question, why did so much effort work on successful companies to learn lessons and experience for corporate governance? But the practical effect is very limited.

Some projects such as: In Search of Excellence, Good to Great … are very famous in the management / business leaders. These works are all years of research, in thousands of big and successful companies in the world, drawing and summarizing the “best practices” that these players / stars are implementing.

These books have been and are still bedside books for CEOs; A lot of seminars, workshops … for senior leaders from Europe to Asia. But sad reality is not only for companies that apply but not many people become “excellence”, but even the list of “great companies” is listed in these studies … only 5-7 years after some The word “great” goes “good”, most don’t even get “good” & disappear.

The organizational structure is still the same, strategy / strategy is unchanged, human / leadership is intact … even experience and many aspects are even better. So what is the reason for the failures?

These classics largely summarize the organizational causes of good or great thanks to several factors such as:

• Good leadership (charismatic leaders; leader who “eat last”)
• Good culture (strong culture)
• Interested in people (care deeply about employees & customers; decide who first and then What or How ….)
• Good strategy (good strategy)
….


Phil Rosenzweig points out that the main problem of these studies is The Halo Effect. The authors focused on studying successful companies, but if they took the time to study even those that failed, they would see a lot of “failure” that had those characteristics.

Google, Apple … often voted as “best place to work”: Lamborghini parking lot, lunch canteen with michellin chef serving Sushi; There is a gym and sauna area near the office … Thanks to the concern that people are great or by giants / hands, can they be interested and attract many talented people? That is a more thorough question.

Seeing a phenomenon that appeared and repeated several times since then deduced some kind of causal relationship … it was probably a bit hasty. Just like when doing statistics, seeing GDP growth and increasing the number of prostitutes (perhaps due to the impact of rising spending on entertainment needs) – the conclusion that prostitution is the source of prosperity (once there is debate among UK economists.

If “self-help” and best-sellers are mostly affected by “Halo Effect”, what is the secret and the way to long-term success for individuals and organizations?

Invite the doctors to read The Halo Effect, or take the time to wait for Meraki in another future review section.

(From Meraki)

One Man’s View Of The World by Lee Kuan Yew

One Man's View Of The World by Lee Kuan Yew

One Man’s View Of The World by Lee Kuan Yew

“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I can’t change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.” – Reinhold Niebuhr


As one of Asia’s most prominent leaders in the 20th century, Lee Kuan Yew has serenity, pragmatic spirit, acceptance of reality and what he cannot change; determination and courage enough to be independent, build and turn Singapore into a “model” country. And above all, wisdom is to know what “must accept” and “what can be changed”.

“One Man’s View of the World.” Is a collection of thoughts, life-long interviews of Lee Kuan Yew for major issues of the world and himself.

Back to Singapore:

Singapore must accept the world as it is because my country is too small to change the situation. But we can try to maximize the space that can help the country navigate between the “multi-tree” in the region. That has been our approach and we have to be agile and flexible so we can continue to do so.

On the domestic side, there are three factors that make up Singapore’s success story – turn this country into the safest place to live and work, treat every citizen equally and ensure long-term success for every generation of Singaporeans.

There are three basic factors that we have built over these years, we will lose our current advantage. Investors, both at home and abroad, need to feel confident investing in Singapore. These three factors ensure their profitability is sustainable in the future. If we don’t integrate and link globally in this way, we will be mercilessly devastated by the world cycle.

….

Within 100 years will Singapore still exist? I’m not sure. America, Central, England, Australia – these countries exist for hundreds of years. But Singapore has only recently formed a national image. The previous generation of Singapore built it from scratch – and how well we did it. When I lead the country, I have done my best to strengthen national interests. Ngo Tac Dong did the same. And now, under Ly Hien Long and his team, the country will grow at least in 10, 15 years. But then, the trajectory we will follow will depend on the younger generation of Singapore. Whatever these options are, I am absolutely certain that if Singapore has a poor government, we will spend our lives. This country will sink into nothingness.

“What is your biggest concern about Singapore?” – I have no worries. I have done my part, my mission is completed. I have built a clean, talented and open-minded system. I can’t do anything anymore, I can’t live forever like a young, middle-aged 40, 50-year-old man energized forever.

“But are you sad when you look at the road in front of Singapore?” – To tell you the truth, I no longer want to know what will happen. No need to be sad. It depends on the growing generation now. What will they do, will they share the same values ​​with their parents?

About China

The re-export of China as a power on the international stage is one of the most dramatic events of our time. With extraordinary economic growth, developing on an unprecedented scale in human history that hardly 40 years ago could have imagined, this country’s growth will certainly continue for several decades. come with the forecast that by 2020 there will be the highest GDP in the world. The rise of this nation is equally remarkable, from a monotonous and pale people into a strong integrated nation with global interests.

In order to understand and predict what China will be in the next twenty years, we need to understand the people and society of this country. Throughout the thousands of years of history, Chinese people still believe that the country can only be at peace when there is an absolute central government. A weak central government is synonymous with confusion and confusion, and if it is powerful, it will lead to a peaceful and prosperous China. Every Chinese person is imbued with this thought and it is also a principle belief that is drawn from the practical and historical lessons they themselves have experienced. Perhaps in the near future, Chinese people remain faithful to this way of thinking and that state of mind has existed for thousands of years before communism was cultivated here.

Many Westerners want to see China become a Western-style democratic country, but this expectation has no practical basis at all. With a prejudiced view of the world, Americans most consistently assume that a country will not be able to succeed without a parliamentary democracy that is like the president and the parliament is elected by popular vote and every few The year must be re-elected once. Chinese people have never had a tradition. As the owner of a vast territory of 1.3 billion people with a distinctive culture and a different history, Chinese people will develop the country in their own way.

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The central problem is whether people believe in repeated Chinese assurances that the country is looking for nothing more than a peaceful rise and that the country will never become hegemonic? There are two ways to look. One is that China will become quietly silent and quietly increase its influence without acting as a aggressor. Another view is that they will show off their strength and try to intimidate other countries. I think they will choose the first way, but at the same time strengthen. Deng Xiaoping believes that China should avoid noticing while strengthening its potential. He believed in hiding his ability, or as the Chinese call it nurturing (refusing to wait for time). The Chinese know that they need 30 to 40 years more peace to catch up with the rest of the world. They have come to the conclusion that if they remain the same route, avoid offending the current great powers and make friends with every country, they will only become stronger and stronger. They are more and more hands-on to solve internal problems and continue to develop their economy.

China is also vigilant to avoid Japanese and German cars. The rise of Germany and Japan led to a power competition in Europe and Asia, the influence and resources led to two horrible wars in the twentieth century, and completely ended the unrest. get up of them. If China participates in a war, the country will have to risk facing internal instability, conflict and chaos, and may fall back – a big gap. Therefore, for Chinese people, rational calculation would be “We have waited so long to have this opportunity to catch up with the developing world. Why hurry and jeopardize our slowly rising process? ”

Of course that does not mean that China merely gives in when there is a conflict with another country. As the balance of power changes, the country will be more free to show what it likes and dislikes. And as former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said, where China’s core interests are threatened, Chinese people will have to assert themselves.

Come back Vietnam

From optimism after my visits to Vietnam in the 1990s, my own view on their reform programs has changed so much. I now believe that the generation of older leaders in Vietnam is not able to fundamentally break socialist thinking. At first, they agreed to embark on a journey of reform because they found that the country was not going anywhere. But since then they have not shown the true determination in overhaul of the system, which people have witnessed in China.

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What Vietnam does not like China is that they lack a leader like Deng Xiaoping , a person who has a firm foothold in the party system and has a strong belief that radical reform is the only way out country. The reason Vietnam lacks such a character is due to the war against America. When Chinese people have decades of peace to record their management experience, taking practice as a guideline to adjust their beliefs and ideologies, the Vietnamese are trapped in a war. Brutal assault on Americans, learning nothing about how to run the country. Moreover, most successful entrepreneurs among the Vietnamese in the South – those familiar with the way of capitalism – left Vietnam in the 1970s.

Vietnamese people are one of the most powerful and capable people in Southeast Asia. Their students who come to Singapore under ASEAN scholarships are serious about their studies and often have the highest scores. For such smart people, it is a pity that they cannot develop their potential. Hopefully, when the war generation fades away and the younger group replaces, they will see how well Thailand develops and become confident in the importance of the free market.

(By Meraki)