Antifragile Book Review – Nassim Taleb

antifragile nassim taleb

Antifragile Book Review – Nassim Taleb

The fallacy of “average” (mistake of average / average figures).

Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2016 is about 2,200 USD (50 million / year). The average house / apartment price is from 700 million – 1.5 billion. High-end apartments are about 3 billion or more. If the average GDP is calculated, Vietnamese people have to work 30 years to buy a mid-range apartment and 68 years of work to buy a high-class apartment. Many people are surprised why the fact that the high-end apartment project still sprung up like mushrooms after the rain, the project that opened and sold out also ran out of stock, so many stars had so much money, it must be speculation / bubbles.

In fact, the average GDP data does not indicate the distribution and the difference in income. The average of the whole society is 2,200 USD, but many people earn hundreds of times that average. My personal guess: the Vietnamese population is 100 million, 70% (70 million) are in the working / working age. Of those 70 million, about 0.5% (350 thousand people) can earn up to 10 billion per year, 5% (3.5 million people) with an income of about 1 billion / year, nearly 15% (11 million). with an income of up to 500 million / year and the remaining 80% (56 million) with income of less than 50 million / year.

Thus, 11 million people can afford an average apartment (less than 1.5 billion) after 4 years of work. Nearly 4 million people are able to buy luxury apartments (over 3 billion) after 4-5 years. The number of high-class apartments in the country is about 12,000 units per year on average, so after only 7 years (from 2009 until now), there are only about 85,000 units, still very few compared to the potential. Not surprisingly, the demand for high-end apartments is still high.

Brand name firms, from Herme leather bags of 2 billion VND / unit, to Rolex watches, LV belts … can survive because of the unequal distribution of properties. Based on the average income of 2,200 USD / year, no firm exists (even in the world, not Vietnam).



Similarly, Vung Tau is the locality with the highest average income of goods in the country, but the business of goods and high-quality investment services is difficult to make money, almost restaurants and coffee shops. high-end, Japanese / American furniture stores are 1 year long and short, only 2-3 months are closed. The reason rich people contribute to high average GDP accounts for a small amount. Although they have a lot of money, they only drink 1 cup of coffee / day, eat up to 3 meals … the demand is only that, the high-end business is difficult to live.

On average, women are smart and capable of being inferior to men. But in men, the distribution of talent is uneven: on the average, the whole species is equal to women, but in some men it is excellent, but others are also ridiculous. That explains why the national leaders, companies, characters are better in men than in women in science and art, but go to jail for drug addiction, addiction, forgiveness, lazy … men also superior to women many times.

Now Nassim Nicholas Taleb has only written 3 books (Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan and Antifragile), but every book is very impressive, profound and countless new ideas. “The fallacy of average” is just a bullet point in a page of Antifragile (450 pages).

All three of Taleb’s books are difficult to read, but deserve to ponder, struggle and read over and over again.


(By Meraki)

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis.

The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis.

“It’s hard to know how people select a course in life. The big choices we make are practically random. The small choices probably tell us more about who we are. Which field we go into may depend on which high school teacher we happen to meet. Who we marry may depend on who happens to be around at the right time of life. On the other hand, the small decisions are very systematic.”
That I became a bookseller is probably not revealing. But what kind of bookseller I am may reflect deep traits.

– From “The Undoing Project”, by Michael Lewis.

(from Meraki)





The Snowball Warren Buffett and the Business of Life – Alice Schroeder

The Snowball Warren Buffett and the Business of Life - Alice Schroeder

The Snowball Warren Buffett and the Business of Life – Alice Schroeder

Buffett is, of course, more intelligent, more intelligent than many other smart people in knowing where he is, what he wants, the reason for his work and the way he goes.


The period of the 1990s internet stock movement in the United States, like we did in 2006-2007, just “selling is losing, buying is winning” … He himself does not join technology / internet stocks, the reason is he has not yet understand how to create value / profit of these companies.

While investors around the year – multiply ten assets by week, by month, Berkshire’s stock value dropped by 30% … for a long time 5-7 years he was mocked, made antics, people say the investment genius Buffet is completely sacred. He ruled, still steadily “cycling”, “cycling”. Until technology stocks bubble burst in 2001.

Buffett thinks jealousy, and social pressure is an enemy that needs to be controlled. To live happily, there should be independence in thinking, perspective, lifestyle, choice, and the path we have chosen.

People like me “lost drift in the middle of life”, swept away by greed and fear: seeing the price rise, then the people rushed to invest, reduce and step on each other running … and both jealousy and pressure inferior to friends, colleagues, society.

There are many good and detailed books about Buffet’s investment method, he himself is very open to sharing secrets / experience in nearly 70 years of his career; Stocks he owns can be bought. Yet very few people later succeeded, even if only 1/10, 1/100 of Buffett. Maybe he said no one listened, or heard but could not do it … and then still drifted, still jealous, still greedy and afraid to lead.

It is also possible that the crowd is “irreparable” so people like Buffett can maintain their advantage with the majority, and continue to win.

The development trend of science, especially in the field of “artificial intelligence” (artificial intelligence) with the ability to handle large data (big data) makes many people believe that the future of computers and algorithms use in investment will defeat “philosophers” like Warren Buffett.

Miles Johnson quotes people who concurrently with Buffett, Carl Icahn: “Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity ”. So is Warren Buffett.

P / S: Buffett later had a technology stock investment, first IBM (in 2011, nearly 20 years after he said he did not understand this level), and later Apple (2016).

(From Meraki)


Black Edge Book Review – Steven A. Cohen.

Black Edge Book Review – Steven A. Cohen.

“Behind every great fortune there is a crime.” – Honoré de Balzac

This is a book about one of the most well-known investment funds in the United States (SAC Captial) and the founder and operator of the Captial SAC: billionaire “white hand made” Steven A. Cohen.

Different from Warren Buffett’s investment school, people buy and hold stock of companies for decades. Cohen is a “surfing” trader, earning money by trading stocks during the day, even hours / minutes.

Stock prices often fluctuate according to revenue and profit information … information about new projects / contracts, or products / inventions that companies prepare. SAC Capital has a dense network of “spies” / “spies” throughout the country to collect these insider information before they are published; and carry out the purchase and sale of related stocks based on the information obtained.


Buying and selling stocks and making profits based on this information is illegal and subject to very heavy imprisonment under US securities law. But SAC Capital is not a normal investment fund, a list of employees and “paid” employees of SAC Capital in addition to “monsters” in the financial industry also includes reputable lawyers, former leaders and employees. key members of every US legal agency (FBI, Ministry of Justice and Securities Commission – SEC).

SAC Capital is considered to be the most successful investment fund in the United States (no less than Berkshire Hathaway of Buffet), the 18-year existence of SAC Capital and Steven Cohen is huge. The wealth of Vietnam’s richest people is estimated at US $ 1 billion, which is only half the amount that Steven Cohen earned in a year.

Based on published documents from prosecutors and the FBI, the book describes in detail the biographies of the main characters, the formation process, the operational model, how to “make prices” and make money of SAC. Capital; as well as a 10-year pursuit of US public agencies (FBI, prosecutor, SEC) to bring down and prosecute Steven Cohen.

True stories but thrilling and more attractive than any detective novel.

The only difference is that the detective theory often ends with “godfathers” being put on the horseshoe. In real life Cohen with innate sharpness and sensitivity, and the system of the most reputable lawyers took advantage of the provisions of US law to defeat the FBI and the justice department. Some “managers” under Cohen were imprisoned, SAC Capital was closed, Cohen was banned from managing public money for two years (still entitled to invest his own money).

But the biggest fish of Steven Cohen reached the net, in 2016 Cohen earned $ 2.5 billion (from investing his money). He plans to reopen a new investment fund in 2018 (after the two-year ban expires), it is expected that people will queue up to ask Steven Cohen to invest.

(From Meraki)


Binh Pháp Chứng Khoán – Nhà Đầu Tư Chứng Khoán Thực Chiến Cần Chuẩn Bị Gì Trước Khi Vào Trận

binh phap ton tu chung khoan

Thị trường chứng khoán là nơi quyết chiến cao tầng của giới tri thức, đó là một chiến trường khốc liệt mà máu và nước mắt sẽ là những ngày dài thật dài, đôi khi người trong cuộc có khả năng quên hẳn niềm vui gần gũi trong cuộc sống.



Thị trường chứng khoán đã đánh đấm nhau từ thuở đầu



Một Jesse Livermore huyền thoại số một, thiên tài đầu cơ, sói già của sói già phố Wall cũng kết thúc số phận và tên tuổi của mình trong một nốt nhạc buồn không gì sầu hơn.


Thế nên, trước khi quyết định tham gia vào thị trường chứng khoán, bạn hãy tự vấn thành thật và nghiêm túc với bản thân mình là mình có nên đầu tư chứng khoán với số tiền lớn hay không, và phải nên học đầu tư chứng khoán như thế nào?

Có nhiều thứ để nói, có thể lướt nhanh qua một vài điểm căn bản. Hãy áp dụng binh pháp Tôn Tử trong chứng khoán, nên biết mình biết người.





1. Đầu tiên là đánh giá bản thân ở cấp độ nào để chơi chứng khoán.

Có 2 thành phần quan trọng nhất trong cuộc chơi chứng khoán. Vâng chính yếu chỉ có 2 phe, ta và địch.

  1. Quỹ đầu tư, các công ty tự doanh, họ thường là những người thắng chung cuộc.
  2. Nhà đầu tư nhỏ, trong đó chia làm nhiều thành phần :

i) Người không biết gì về chứng khoán, không biết phân tích cơ bản, phân tích kỹ thuật. Chắc chắn thua.


ii) Người có ít kiến thức về chứng khoán, một chút phân tích cơ bản, một chút phân tích kỹ thuật. Nên tham gia vào các quỹ đầu tư hoặc công ty chứng khoán để trau dồi thêm kinh nghiệm. Khả năng chiến thắng tầm 30%.



iii) Người có hiểu biết kinh tế vỹ mô :  chọn hàng theo chu kỳ , khi giá giảm đi ngang dài và bật lên kèm theo ngành nghề đó tăng trưởng lại vì chu kỳ như : bất động sản, dầu khí, thép , hàng hóa, vận tải, kho bãi cảng. Họ có khả năng thắng 50%.

iv) Người có đầu óc sắc bén, tính cách mạnh mẽ ,mạch lạc, nói được làm được hãy học phân tích kỹ thuật và các lý thuyết kinh tế vỹ mô để hướng tới chuyên nghiệp , và bắt đầu vừa học vừa thực hành với số vốn thật ít, luyện tập cho tài khoản luôn tăng đều đặn, họ sẽ là nhà đầu tư chuyên nghiệp.


2. Yếu tố bắt buộc để đầu tư chứng khoán 

i) Óc Quan Sát
ii) Trí Thông Minh
iii) Sức Chịu Đựng
Có được những điều trên sẽ cho bạn một hình ảnh như thế này:

Vẻ đẹp tưởng tượng của một người thành công trong chứng khoán

Nhưng cũng như sự lừa lọc vốn bản chất trong chứng khoán, hình ảnh thật sự khác xa những gì ta được nghe hay được bảo. Thuật ngữ ngành là chim lợn và bìm bịp.

Vẻ đẹp điển hình của một người thành công trong thị trường chứng khoán

3. Những kiến thức, công cụ, chỉ báo phân tích kỹ thuật cần phải nắm vững khi tham gia thị trường chứng khoán

 4. Nhà đầu tư chứng khoán thực chiến nên dùng hệ thống, phần mềm giao dịch nào để phân tích?

Tốt nhất là nên sử dụng ít nhất 2 hệ thống giao dịch để tránh sự sai sót số liệu. Mỗi phần mềm có thế mạnh riêng. Nhà đầu tư cá nhân thì có thể dùng bản miễn phí Investing.com hay bản không bản quyền Amibroker. 
Nhưng là nhà đầu tư chứng khoán thực chiến, tốt nhất là nên mua hệ thống TradingView, giá cả một năm không đáng bao nhiêu nhưng rất đáng đồng tiền bát gạo, nhiều công cụ hỗ trợ, có thể tùy chỉnh theo ý mình, cập nhật giá đến từng phút, hỗ trợ tiếng Việt.

Bảng giá TradingView có thể tham khảo tại đây: https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/

Cứ sắm ít kiến thức và công cụ như vậy trước đã, đường còn dài và chông gai lắm.


(Sưu tầm từ Binh Pháp Chứng Khoán)